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Special Elections are Special

First, a few words of caution about interpreting the results of this or any other special elections. These types of events are, as the name says, special and therefore different than most elections, so we need to not draw sweeping conclusions. Furthermore, the turnout in this race according to the Cook Political Report was about 175,000 which represents just under two-thirds (64 percent) of those who voted in 2022. As the New York Times pointed out: “Political strategists of all stripes caution against drawing sweeping conclusions from special elections. The contests can offer a snapshot of political energy at a moment in time, but they are far from predictive.”

The Power of Asian American Voters

While most of the third congressional district is in Nassau County, a much smaller part of the district extends into Queens in New York City. Suozzi did exceptionally well in the Queens part of the district (62 percent). There are a couple of reasons for this. The Queens part of the third is more Democratic than the rest of the district and it also has a disproportionate number of Asian American voters. Based on an analysis of the Suozzi campaign social media efforts, the campaign worked very diligently at outreach to the various Asian American communities. The power of Asian American voters sometimes goes unrecognized. Just last month the Pew Foundation reported that:

Asian Americans have been the fastest-growing group of eligible voters in the United States over roughly the past two decades and since 2020. Their number has grown by 15%, or about 2 million eligible voters, in the past four years. That’s faster than the 3% growth rate for all eligible voters during that span and the 12% for Hispanic eligible voters.

Given that the 2024 presidential election will be determined by a relatively few number of voters in six or seven states, Democrats would do well to devote resources to Asian American voters.

Candidates and Campaigns Matter

It sounds simplistic but it is essential to remember that in politics, candidates and the campaigns they run matter. Suozzi is a former congressman, county executive and mayor and has been in politics for many years. On the other hand, Pilip is a relative newcomer. The difference between the two candidates showed in both the campaigns they ran and in their debate performance. The Nassau County GOP made a bold decision in selecting Pilip. On paper, she was a good candidate: a fresh face, an immigrant from Israel who had served in the Israeli Defense Forces and a county legislator. Unfortunately, for the GOP Pilip was overmatched by the experienced and energetic Suozzi.

Democrats Do Not Have to Play Defense on Immigration

Republicans attempted to make immigration the central piece of this race and they were successful in drawing attention to the issue by highlighting comments Suozzi had made about Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Instead of going on the defensive on this issue, Suozzi fought back aggressively. Suozzi emphasized his pragmatism on immigration and his support for tougher border enforcement and the bipartisan Senate immigration bill. The Pilip campaign and the GOP seem to have been surprised by Suozzi’s stance on this issue and they never developed an effective counterpunch. All Pilip could do was to mechanically repeat the GOP criticism of the Senate immigration proposal saying that it “it simply puts into law the invasion currently happening at our southern border.”

Suozzi’s somewhat rightward shift on immigration may not work in all places. However, it is obvious that it is more effective than simply being a GOP punching bag on the issue. To have any hope of winning the House and keeping the Senate and the White House, Democrats are going to need to address this issue. Suozzi’s campaign offers Democrats a potential strategy that would be both good politics and policy. As Karen Tumulty put it in the Washington Post:

For too long, Democrats preferred to dismiss the chaos that was taking place at the border or contend that the right was ginning up the issue. These days, though, Democrats have a solid argument to make that it is Republicans who are not taking it seriously enough, using the crisis as political fodder for the election rather than doing what is possible to fix it now.

The Trump Factor

According to former President Trump, Pilip lost the race because she did not ask for his endorsement. He wrote on his social media platform:

“Republicans just don’t learn, but maybe she was still a Democrat?” Trump wrote on his social media platform. “I have an almost 99% Endorsement Success Rate in Primaries, and a very good number in the General Elections, as well, but just watched this very foolish woman, Mazi Melesa Pilip, running in a race where she didn’t endorse me and tried to ‘straddle the fence,’ when she would have easily WON if she understood anything about MODERN DAY politics in America.”

The truth of the matter is that neither Suozzi nor Pilip wanted their party’s presidential leaders in this special election. Both Biden and Trump have approval scores that are negative. As Politico reported: “the two main characters in the nation’s political story are too unpopular to set foot in the district.”

One thing that was very intriguing to me was that in the data from Sienna College Newsday polls, Suozzi was getting 10 percent of those who said they were going to vote for Trump in the fall. Certainly, winning 10 percent of any voting bloc is not normally a major achievement. However, in these hyper-partisan times, this can make the difference. Suozzi’s ability to connect in any way with Trump voters gives the Democrats reason to think that they can hold on to this seat in the fall.