If there is a state where you think Trump’s tariffs would play well, it would be Ohio. The state has been hurt by globalization and what was once a swing state has shifted solidly into the Republican camp. In 2024, the then former President Trump bested Vice President Harris by a 51 to 44 percent margin. Ohio also turned out of office the multi-term incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown. Democratic victories in 2024 were largely limited to the major cities of Cleveland, Cincinnati, Columbus, and Toledo.
According to CNN exit polling, Trump won 51 percent of Independent voters in Ohio, 50 percent of Latinos and a decisive 57 percent of suburban voters. If you were looking for Trump country, Ohio would fit the bill.
According to polling conducted by Bowling Green University in Ohio released this week, Trump not only receives anaemic job approval scores (47 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove), a 51 percent majority of Ohio voters feel Trump’s tariffs will hurt them personally. Just one in four (25 percent) see the tariffs as helping them. Fully two-thirds (66 percent) think the tariffs will benefit the wealthy (66 percent) and large corporations (60 percent).
As with several other rust belt states, the auto industry is very important to Ohio. Fully 54 percent of Ohio voters think the tariffs will not help the auto industry.
In addition to the impact of tariffs on them personally, 49 percent see them as hurting the United States, while 38 percent see them as helping the country. Fully 58 percent see Trump’s tariffs as not benefitting labor unions. Voters ages 18 to 44 are especially sceptical of tariffs having a positive impact on labor unions (67 percent will not benefit).
Ohio voters see the economy over the last year as having greatly deteriorated. Just over one in three (34 percent) think it has gotten somewhat worse while 27 percent think it has gotten much worse. Economics dominates the concerns of Ohio voters. Thirty (30) percent list the economy in general as their top concern while just over one in ten (11 percent) singles out inflation.
Significantly, voters see tariffs as not helping either the working class (58 percent will not benefit) or the middle class (58 percent will not benefit).
The research from Bowling Green University is particularly significant because over the last few weeks, there has been a lot of reporting from Middle America saying that while Trump voters know that his tariffs are hurting the economy, they are still one hundred and ten percent behind him. A recent story from the BBC on April 5 is a prime example:
This [Delta, Ohio] is Trump country — the Republican ticket easily won here in November’s presidential election by a margin of almost two-to-one. And while the markets are in turmoil following Trump’s unveiling of expansive global tariffs this week, plenty of people in Delta and hundreds of Midwestern towns like it still back the president’s plans. Those plans, to impose tariffs of between 10% and 50% on almost every country, have upended global trade and led to warnings that prices could soon rise for American consumers. Trump, meanwhile, has said the move will address unfair trade imbalances, boost US industry, and raise revenue. For some in Delta, the president’s argument about fairness resonates.
None of this is to say that the BBC reporting is inaccurate. I am sure that it accurately reflects the sentiment of the voters the reporters talked to. The error is to assume that the story (in this case from the town of Delta, Ohio) is an accurate representation of the state.
While other polling will be needed to confirm the Bowling Green research, for now the evidence is quite clear. Voters in Ohio are less than impressed by Trump’s first hundred days in office. As in November, they are still very worried about the economy. They do not feel that Trump’s tariffs will help them. Instead, they believe that the tariffs will only help the wealthy and big corporations.
With all things considered, it looks like Trump’s tariffs may considerably boost Democratic chances in Ohio in 2026 and beyond.
