According to CNN exit polling, in 2024, US President Donald Trump lost Independent voters to Vice President Kamala Harris by a slim three percentage points (49%) Harris, 46% Trump).
One hundred days into Trump 2.0, numerous polls demonstrate that Independents disapprove of the president’s job performance. With American politics extremely polarized between Democrats and Republicans, Independents are the critical battleground.
In polling for Washington Post/ ABC News, 58% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance. Polling by the New York Times/Siena College paints an even grimmer picture as two out of three (66%) Independent voters disapprove of his job performance.
Trump’s stars don’t get any better the closer you look.
Tariffs Hurt Trump
In Washington Post/ABC News polling, 66% of Independent voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy. In the New York Times/Siena polling, a 54% majority of Independents feel that Trump has made the economy worse since taking office.
Even more significantly, 67% of Independent voters think that Trump does not understand the problems facing them; 60% of the Independents in the Washington Post/ABC News poll say that Trump is out of touch with the “concerns of most people in the United States today”.
Are Trump’s tariff policies driving the shift among Independents? The Washington Post/ABC News polling finds that 70% disapprove of Trump’s tariffs (6% higher than among all respondents) and the New York Times/Siena polling finds that 63% of Independents disapprove of Trump’s tariffs (8 points higher than among all respondents).
Furthermore, 68% of Independents see the US as benefiting from trade with other countries. The data in both polls strongly suggests that Trump’s tarries are hurting him with Independent voters.
Trump’s Anti-immigration Push
No issue had been more central to Trump’s political identity than immigration. The New York Times/Siena polling shows that 54% approve of Trump’s policy of “deporting immigrants living in the United States illegally back to their home countries”. Independents are slightly less likely to approve of this policy (52%).
In the Washington Post/ABC News polling, 48% feel that Trump is “going too far in deporting undocumented immigrants,” while just over one in three (34%) say Trump’s actions have been “about right” and 16% say he has “not gone far enough.”
Independent voters offer up an identical response to respondents on the deportation of undocumented immigrants (48% too far, 16% not going far enough, 34% about right).
Trump’s Failures Aren’t a Win for the Democrats
Is there something in the New York Times/Siena poll or the Washington Post/ABC News that is good for the Trump team? Yes, there is—independents are clearly critical of Trump’s handling of the economy, do not think he understands their concerns, and are not impressed with his handling of undocumented immigrants—yet they do not have confidence in the Democrats.
In the Washington Post/ABC News polling, just under one in five (19%) see the Democrats in Congress as doing a better job “handling the country’s main problems). At least in relative terms, Trump does better on this question (28% do a better job). Most importantly, a 47% plurality of Independents trust neither Trump or the Democrats in Congress to address the country’s problems.
On a related question, the Washington Post/ABC News polling finds that fully 69% see the Democratic party as “out of touch with the concerns of most people in the United States”. The GOP also receives poor marks on this question (64% out of touch).
The evidence in both the Washington Post/ABC News and New York Times/Siena polls clearly shows that the bottom has fallen out for Trump with Independent voters.
They are clearly disapproving of his tariff policy and less than impressed with his policy on undocumented immigrants. Furthermore, Independents do not see Trump as understanding their concerns.
The problem for Democrats is that Independents disdain them almost as much as Trump. If Democrats can develop a persuasive message to attract Independent voters, they have a once in a generation opportunity to win over Independents.
The polling data suggests that an economic message focused on tariffs will resonate with Independents. The only question is will Democrats seize this moment?
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